Economic Data Looks Very Good to Start June, However....

June is starting off very nicely in terms of economic data reported. Here's from our June 2018 trends file:

click each insert below to enlarge...

Flows in and out of the labor market denote very strong conditions:


Ford F-series truck sales say good things about the state of small business and the economy overall:


May's ISM Manufacturing Survey beat expectations handily:


May's ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Survey beat expectations and is showing great breadth:


The U.S. is seeing more job openings than it has unemployed folks to fill them:


That's all very good and confirms the reading of our proprietary macro index. However, per part 2 of our trends file highlights below, there's clearly some inflation brewing beneath the surface.

Note: Inflation rising at this stage of the business cycle is to be expected, welcomed even. However, if/when it's artificially exacerbated at the hands of the politician (read tariffs), it can become very problematic...

Manufacturers are worried about tariffs:


The services sector worries about tariffs:


Manufacturers report prices rising on a number of inputs, prices falling on none:


The services sector reports prices rising on a number of inputs, price falling only on beef:


*The charts in part one provided by Bespoke Investment Group. Part 2 data provided by the Institute for Supply Management.