Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Economic Data Looks Very Good to Start June, However....

June is starting off very nicely in terms of economic data reported. Here's from our June 2018 trends file:

click each insert below to enlarge...

Flows in and out of the labor market denote very strong conditions:

Ford F-series truck sales say good things about the state of small business and the economy overall:

May's ISM Manufacturing Survey beat expectations handily:

May's ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Survey beat expectations and is showing great breadth:

The U.S. is seeing more job openings than it has unemployed folks to fill them:

That's all very good and confirms the reading of our proprietary macro index. However, per part 2 of our trends file highlights below, there's clearly some inflation brewing beneath the surface.

Note: Inflation rising at this stage of the business cycle is to be expected, welcomed even. However, if/when it's artificially exacerbated at the hands of the politician (read tariffs), it can become very problematic...

Manufacturers are worried about tariffs:

The services sector worries about tariffs:

Manufacturers report prices rising on a number of inputs, prices falling on none:

The services sector reports prices rising on a number of inputs, price falling only on beef:

*The charts in part one provided by Bespoke Investment Group. Part 2 data provided by the Institute for Supply Management.

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