Thursday, July 26, 2018

Housing Woes Still Appear To Be More About Supply Than They Do Demand

Monthly new homes sales reported this week missed estimates big time, down 6.1% over the past three months, although they're still up 2.4% year-over-year. 

While -- as we're forever on the lookout for stress building within the economy -- we need to take such data seriously, the concerning headline results appear to belie what remains a tight housing market.

Here's Bespoke Investment Group on the topic:
Sales of homes not yet started were up 6% over the last 3 months, versus a 13% decline in sales of completed units. Inventories of completed or under construction homes dropped, while the number of new homes for sale but not yet started continued to expand. 
Furthermore, the median number of months on the market for new homes remains near 3, while months’ supply is a normal 5.7; in short, this looks like softer supply rather than demand.
And here's a visual of some key metrics (note the difference between now and the tip of the previous bubble):



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