Thursday, July 12, 2018

No News Is Good News....

In this week's video I suggested that the recent rally at that point  looked to me like a "no-news-is-good-news" event. I.e., amid a bullish setup, any lull in THE headwind (trade war) would see prices higher. I also cautioned viewers to expect "more volatility because, clearly, neither side is willing to concede at this point." Then of course that evening (Tuesday) the Administration laid out its plan to tariff another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and, of course, yesterday saw the Dow down 200 points. 

Speaking with a friend in the farming business yesterday (a gentleman intensely focused on the present state of trade affairs), we agreed that the markets are waiting with bated breath for China's return volley. 

Well, I think we can characterize today's rebound in stocks as yet another no-news-is-good-news rally (although inflation, employment and sentiment data reported this morning all read bullish). Or, perhaps it’s an optimistic response to the following news:

China Plays for Time in Trade War With Subtle Shift in Rhetoric
  • China’s key commerce ministry avoids giving retaliation detail
  • Beijing may be moving away from tit-for-tat measures: analyst
By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- 
Officials in Beijing appear to be toning down their responses toDonald Trump’s tariff threats, amid a slowing economy, a falling stock market and a weakening currency.
Evidence of the shift continued Thursday when the Commerce Ministry held off detailing how it plans to retaliate against Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese-made goods.
Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said the government will take “necessary” steps to hit back, but when pressed he stopped short of repeating a previous pledge to respond with “quantitative” and “qualitative” measures and didn’t outline specifics about which measures China would retaliate with.

No comments:

Post a Comment