Monday, March 25, 2019

A Further Selloff Is Not To Be Bemoaned

Last Friday's blog post was subtitled "We Need A Selloff Right Here". My premise was that a strong stock market at this juncture was counterproductive to ultimately positive results around what I view as the market's greatest current headwind, the U.S./China trade war.

Upon the positive-for-the-President conclusion of the Mueller investigation, equity futures saw an immediate, although modest, bounce yesterday afternoon, which traders ultimately faded, and some, by this morning. While it wouldn't surprise me to see stocks catch a bid this week, helped by the certainty of zero impeachment odds going forward and what I suspect will be an attempt to talk up the next round of in person China trade talks, we absolutely should not bemoan more downside action if indeed that occurs. For, as I've stated numerous times herein, a trade deal that leaves the tit-for-tat tariffs that both sides put in place during the skirmish will not produce sustainable upside momentum for the stock market; the opposite, in fact, is a distinct possibility.

A deeper near-term selloff will have the President rethinking his commitment to leaving the existing tariff regime as is...

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