Friday, March 22, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry: We need a selloff right here!

Wednesday’s rally on the Fed decision, then the plummet immediately following Powell’s press conference made perfect sense to me – after hearing Trump proclaim that he has no interest in rolling back tariffs as part of a China deal. Therefore, Thursday’s big rally surprised me – I was absolutely expecting follow through selling.

Thursday’s rally appeared to be a re-thinking among traders that indeed the uber-dovish Fed stance will either overcome a not-so-bullish trade deal, or perhaps that the deal will be notably better than Trump is threatening, or, perhaps, being myopic by nature, traders weren't thinking at all about a decision that remains weeks away. A huge upgrade of Apple shares definitely helped.

This morning, however, stocks are selling off hard in the pre-market; sometimes traders are slow to react to (short-term or long-term) fundamental reality. Weak data out of Germany this morning is definitely helping the selling along as well.

The best thing for the bull market would be an attention-getting selloff right here. The administration is exceedingly market-centric; the latest rally has it believing that it can revert back to strong-arm tactics on trade. Such tactics, however, will unveil how – despite this year’s rally – the market is exhausted by the China trade war, and how it is very fearful of the pending one with Europe. A strong selloff right here -- ripping through global markets -- would move all parties in the right direction. 

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