Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Quote of the Day

Bloomberg's Andrew Mayeda shares my view of the extreme political risk in not coming to workable terms with China, and speaks to the market risk inherent in a deal that does not include a rollback of existing tariffs:   emphasis mine...
"“The president is desperate for a deal,” said Clark Packard, trade-policy counsel at the R Street Institute, a think tank based in Washington. “I don’t think he wants to go into 2020, running for re-election, without something here.”
But it’s looking increasingly doubtful that the ideal scenario for investors and business leaders -- complete removal of the tariffs -- will come to pass. Trump said last week he plans to keep tariffs on Chinese products until he’s sure Beijing is complying with any deal, citing concern that it hasn’t lived up to previous commitments.
The question of whether to roll back existing tariffs will probably be one of the final, and trickiest, issues to resolve, and it’s likely some of the duties will remain in place, said Tim Keeler, an attorney at Mayer Brown who served as chief of staff to former U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab."
That last paragraph speaks to why, contrary to the opinion of many pundits, in my view the market does not have a resolution already priced in. A deal? Yes. A market-friendly deal? Huge question at the moment... 

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