Monday, October 14, 2019

Chart of the Day: Freight Data Not Good!

Cass Information Systems highly-touted (as a leading economic indicator) freight index report was just released for September. 

Here's why it's so "highly-touted":
"....since the end of World War II (the period for which we have reliable data) there has never been an economic contraction without there first being a contraction in freight flows."
And September's report jibes with what you've been reading herein of late:    emphasis mine...
"Whether it is a result of contagion or trade disputes, there is growing evidence from freight flows that the economy is beginning to contract. The freight markets, or more accurately goods flow, have a well-earned reputation for predictive value without the anchoring biases that are found in many models which attempt to predict the broader economy. As is our custom, we will look at the specific freight flows that are signaling continued growth in specific segments of the economy. Each of these data sets supports our assertion that the Cass Shipments Index is indicative of economic retrenchment bordering on contraction. 
Bottom line: the volume of freight in multiple modes is materially slowing and suggests an increasingly bearish economic outlook for the U.S. domestic economy."
click to enlarge...

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