Sunday, November 3, 2019

Quote of the Day: Insiders Fading Recent Rallies

Considering seasonality (November and December tend to be very good months for stocks), Friday's better than expected jobs number, the Fed's recent rate cut and its dovish cooing, and the market's propensity to trade higher on anything suggesting trade war(s) are not due to escalate (the White House -- as the latest tweets, etc., suggest -- clearly gets that message), a strong year-end for stocks is making a lot of sense. Although, I have to say, considering the consensus pessimism coming into what turned out to be a very good October (markets love to disappoint the consensus), perhaps a strong year-end makes a little too much sense.

Being that the next couple of months is not our time frame for client portfolios (not even close!), we have to look beyond the very short-term, and dig much deeper, to assess what looms further out.

In recent video commentaries I've been pointing to technical indicators that suggest that the "smart money" may be fading (selling into) the latest moves higher. The following cited by former senior Fed adviser Daniel DiMartino Booth supports that notion: 
"In the month through September 26, Trimtabs tracked $14.2 billion of corporate executives’ insider share sales, the highest for any September in the past decade. But persistence is what counts even more. September also marked the sixth consecutive month that insiders unloaded $10 billion or more of their shares on a monthly basis, the longest stretch since 2006."

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