The blue line represents the unemployment rate (inverted), the gray-shaded areas represent the past 11 recessions; note how closely recession tends to follow a change in trend:
Like I keep saying, we're watching the employment data very closely, as it rolling over will likely be the all-clear signal for the next recession.
And while, again, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, capital spending plans is a forward-looking one. The following is a red flag:
"Factory executives forecast capital expenditures will decrease 2.1% in 2020, which if realized would be the first annual decline in 11 years, according to a semiannual survey from the Institute for Supply Management released Monday."I.e., businesses anticipate cutting expenses for a reason, and if present trends don't begin to reverse (which they could), they'll no doubt sooner or later be looking to cut their biggest expense of all, which is labor.