Sunday, May 10, 2020

Chart of the Day

The on the surface indicators that give us a feel for short-term equity market prospects are on balance supportive. I.e., while there are a few signs here and there that short-term bears may be defecting to the bull camp, there remains sufficient fear to keep the market afloat at current levels, or higher (i.e., in the short-run you're smart to be a contrarian).

The above said, as I illustrated in yesterday's video, the sentiment trade has been known to fall on its face (hard!) under true bear market conditions.

Beneath the dynamics that fuel markets in the short-term lie the developments that instruct those who concern themselves with the longer-term, ultimate, risk/reward setup.

Considering the source of systemic risk (risk to the system) that we've been dissecting, outlining, and illustrating herein over the past year+, the following is, to put it mildly, long-term disturbing:

Bottom line: The Fed, in all-out panic mode, is attempting to snuff out the fire by essentially incentivizing market actors to smother it with more fuel... And the market-feedback thus far is that it's working (that's not a long-term good thing by the way)...

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