Thursday, May 21, 2020

Morning Note

Another 2+ million folks filed for unemployment last week, bringing the total to 38+ million, and, as I type, the Dow’s up 60 points, gold’s down $14/ounce, silver’s off 1%, copper’s flat, oil’s up 3%, ag commodities are mixed (introduced to portfolios yesterday) and the 10-year treasury note is up a smidge (yield down a smidge).

Let’s attribute gold and silver’s give-back at the open to a bit of profit-taking, copper’s flatness to ambiguity, oil’s upness to a classic bear market rally (I know, politics, reopening economies, inventories, production cuts, yada yada yada), ag commodities to ambiguity and the 10-yr treasury to ambiguity.

Oh, but what about stocks? Well.... we can attribute stocks at present levels to the belief (among a certain market-moving cohort) that the economy will quickly recover to its pre-crisis trajectory -- WAIT, scratch that, the economy’s pre-crisis slope was downward -- that the economy will quickly recover to its late-2017 trajectory (see green arrow on our PWA Index graph below), that crushing corporate debt will not only stop rising but will suddenly careen to manageable levels and that the U.S. and China will all of a sudden get friendly and forget all about the things they’re presently at each other's throats about… And if all that doesn't happen, no prob, the Fed'll fix it...

And you want to talk about why we own gold and are hedging client portfolios with options???

click to enlarge...

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