While the graph of our PWA Macro Index is starting to look concerning (declining again this week, by 4 points to 10.20), the fact that what's ultimately driving much of the data -- as artificial (non-organic) as it is -- is nowhere near due to subside, has us anything but reactive right here.
The positives:Consumer Savings Ratio (yes, a decline [meaning more spending] is short-term good for the economy):
Weekly Jobless Claims (while 684k is a historically-ominous number, the trend is much improved):
Non-needle movers worth mentioning:
So far, by the way, the market agrees with us/me:2, 5 and 10-year breakevens (inflation expectations reflected in the yield spread between inflation-protected and nominal treasuries) continue to rise, notably:
I'll close here by repeating last week's close:
"Much of the forthcoming data will be unusually distorted, to say the least, as they'll be scored against year ago comparables that occurred during the massive COVID-inspired contraction. I'll of course take that into account as I report to you on the state of general conditions over the weeks/months to come."