Friday, October 8, 2021

Morning Note: At Second Blush -- And -- It's About What You're Wearing

At first blush this morning's jobs number looked like a big bust; 194k net jobs added vs 500k expected. 

At second blush, however, it was fine: 

For starters, July's and August's numbers were revised up by a total 169k. The issue for September was a notable decline in public education jobs, which economists are chalking up to confused seasonal calculations relative to what occurred last year. The private sector came in at 317k, which, when factoring in prior months' revisions, wasn't far from expectations. And then there was the ADP (payrolls) number reported Wednesday (up 568k).

Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% (that's big), while the average workweek rose to a 4-month high of 34.8 hours. 

The wage and hours worked data reflect the challenges employers are facing in attracting and retaining workers, which flies in the face of arguments suggesting today's number reflects economic weakness. 

Stay tuned, our weekly macro update is on deck...

Asian equities leaned green overnight, with all but 2 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's mixed this morning, with 9 of the 19 bourses we follow currently trading lower.

U.S. stocks are up a titch to start the session: Dow by 59 points (0.17%), SP500 up 0.20%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 flat, Nasdaq Composite up 0.06%, Russell 2000 up 0.25%.

The VIX sits at 18.50, down 5.32%.

Oil futures are up 2.13%, gold's up 0.93%, silver's up 1.82%, copper futures are up 1.26% and the ag complex is up 0.44%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.12%.

Led by energy stocks, silver, Nokia, Latin American equities and base metals futures -- but dragged by solar stocks, KRBN (carbon credits), ALB (lithium miner), uranium miners and AT&T -- our core portfolio is up 0.33% to start the day.

One of the more often questions I find myself fielding is, is now a good time to invest? Essentially an enquiry as to the market weather forecast, if you will. 

Well, while we indeed keep very close tabs on market "weather" conditions at all times, frankly, it's largely about what we're wearing as we brave the elements. Are we, for example, amply diversified, and hedging, when conditions are wintery?
"...people talk about the temperature in winter even though whether they actually feel cold also depends on the wind, the snow, the clouds, their clothing, and their health."
--Benoit Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Markets

Have a great day!

No comments:

Post a Comment