Suffice to say that, while we see low recession odds on the foreseeable horizon, overall economic sentiment is clearly waning.
On the global front, the IMF published its latest World Economic Outlook this morning.
Here's the intro: emphasis mine...
"The global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges. The fault lines opened up by COVID-19 are looking more persistent—near-term divergences are expected to leave lasting imprints on medium-term performance. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps.
The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July forecast. The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downgrade for advanced economies—in part due to supply disruptions—and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics. This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies. Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants have increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome. Policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver."
Zeroing on the US; here's the intro to this morning's release of the September NFIB Small Business Survey:
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased one point in September to 99.1. Three of the 10 Index components improved, five declined, and two were unchanged.
Being that small businesses employ the majority of us Americans, we take this data seriously. It accounts for 3 of our 48 macro index inputs:
"I don’t believe that I am an amazing economist who predicts the future. What I actually believe is that I recognize the world as I find it and that I am flexible enough to change my mind." --Colm O'Shea