Friday, December 3, 2021

Morning Note: Odd Jobs (#) -- And -- I'm With Churchill on Change...

This morning's jobs report was odd, to put it mildly!

The headline number (+210k) missed expectations by over 300k. However, the separate household survey says the economy added a whopping 1.13 million! The average workweek rose, the unemployment rate declined (to 4.2%), labor force participation and the employment to population ratio both improved, and wages are up 4.8% from a year ago. I'm guessing that confused seasonal adjustments explain the divergent headline number...

On balance, it was a strong report, and, as it's being digested (as I type) tech stocks have moved from green to red... Remember, they're notably interest rate sensitive right here...

Lots more coming your way over the weekend: Our macro and technical updates, and a look at the latest results of our newest (in the testing phase, actually) indicator we call our Equity Market Conditions Index. Note that the latter scored a positive 33 back in August, but rolled over to a negative 16 on November 21st.

Here's the move in the SP500 since November 21st (and, please, don't think for a moment that I'm suggesting we've discovered a serious market-timing indicator. I promise, unequivocally, we haven't!! This will just be another tool to help us assess overall market conditions):

Asian equities were mostly higher overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green.

Europe's leaning slightly green so far this morning, with 11 of the 19 bourses we follow trading just a bit higher, as I type.

US major averages are down to start the session: Dow down 122 points (0.36%), SP500 down 0.44%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.24%, Nasdaq 100 down 1.13%, Nasdaq Comp down 1.31%, Russell 2000 down 1.42%.

The VIX sits at a troubling 29.61, up 5.64%.

Oil futures are up 2.92%, gold's up 0.13%, silver's down 0.29%, copper futures are down 0.47% and the ag complex is up 0.76%.

The 10-year treasury is flat and the dollar is up 0.21%.

Led by Viacom/CBS, base metals futures, ag futures, consumer staples, materials and oil services stocks -- but dragged by MP (rare earth miner), solar stocks, AMD (chip maker), Indian equities and ALB (lithium miner) -- our core portfolio is off 0.22% to start the day.

Many times you and I have heard how different things (i.e., all things technology) are today. I get it, however, in the grand scheme of things, I'm with Churchill on this one:
"“The farther backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see,” Winston Churchill once said. The challenge is to look at the future not along a straight line, but around the inevitable corners. To know how to do that, you have to practice looking at how the past has turned corners."
--Strauss, William; Howe, Neil. The Fourth Turning 

Have a great day!

No comments:

Post a Comment