Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Charts of the Day

This from Bespoke Investment Group's morning note comports with ours:

"Overnight Data: Japan’s machine tool orders are a timely piece of “hard” data on global capital expenditure activity. While not comprehensive, they are certainly indicative and as shown in the chart below, the current capex cycle is in full retreat. That’s consistent with a broad global slowdown in activity at the hands of central bank tightening over the last two years.
In the UK, a similar turn has shown up in the unemployment rate, which has been trending higher for the past year. Despite weaker employment, wage growth remains extremely high (albeit is of course lagged somewhat to employment).
Italian data on bank lending showed a slowing of Italian mortgage demand over the past six months thanks to higher ECB rates. ZEW data on financial analyst expectations shows negativity starting to build.
In the US, labor markets are clearly slowing as indicated by NFIB data which has fallen below pre-COVID norms in the most recent print this morning."

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