Morning Note

After opening in the green, US major equity averages have turned marginally south as I type (8am PDT), with all but 2 sectors trading lower -- materials, industrials, healthcare and utilities notably so.

The headline risk of course remains Iran, with them not yet confirming a willingness to resume negotiations in Pakistan tomorrow... Fed Chair nominee Warsh is also getting the attendant Capital Hill grilling this morning, which -- to the extent he suggests he'd be tough on inflation -- I suspect could add to today's volatility as well... Gold, which is trading mostly as an interest-rate-sensitive asset of late, is getting hammered this morning.

Per the below, despite feeling it a bit this morning (given the sector, regional and precious metal pain thus far), our overall allocation is durably positioned for times like these.

Here's your PWAI morning rundown:

PWA Morning Commentary — April 21, 2026

Markets are in a curious holding pattern this morning — equities nearly flat, oil steady near $96, and gold selling off 1.4% — as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires tonight. President Trump said this morning he expects to resume bombing if no deal is reached, calling that posture "a better attitude to go in with," while Vice President Vance and senior envoys are wheels-up to Islamabad for a second round of talks that Iran's foreign ministry has been notably cool on. The structural gap remains wide: the U.S. is demanding a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment; Iran countered with five years and walked away. Hormuz stays closed, the U.S. naval blockade remains in place, and Tehran is signaling it won't negotiate under those conditions.

Gold's pullback today is the same dynamic we flagged yesterday — rate hike sensitivity dominating the safe-haven bid as sustained oil prices above $95 keep inflation expectations elevated. Nothing in the fundamental thesis has changed. Our downside protection remains in place. The equity book is largely quiet, with energy holdings continuing to benefit from the oil premium. We are not repositioning ahead of tonight's binary — the structured positions are doing their job, cash reserves remain meaningful, and the next decisive catalyst is whether Vance gets Iran to the table and whether any framework emerges before the deadline. A confirmed agreement, even partial, would be the most significant risk-on catalyst we've seen in weeks. Absent that, we go back to war footing and the portfolio is built for it.