While listening to the Bloomberg Radio app this morning at the gym it occurred to me that were I not the obsessor of all things market and economic and were I listening in for the very first time - I'd be catching the commentary of the great commodity bull Jimmy Rogers. And I'd likely be cutting my workout short, calling my advisor, or logging onto my Etrade account, and selling all my stocks and throwing everything into my commodities fund.
But if, were I that first-timer, I tuned in 10 minutes later and missed Mr. Rogers, I would have caught the commentary of famed money manager Michael Holland. And I'd likely be cutting my workout short, calling my advisor, or logging onto my Etrade account, and selling everything not stocks (say my cash, bonds and commodities) and throwing it all into my stock funds.
And what if, were I that first-timer, I stayed tuned to both? Utter confusion.
Two famous, and (I assume) successful, money managers, minutes apart at opposite extremes.
So who's right? Who's wrong? The answers: both and both. Over the course of the next few minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years and decades, there will be periods when commodities rally, when commodities tank, when stocks rally, and when stocks tank. One thing you can be sure of, owning stuff (stocks, commodities, real estate) other people ultimately want, long-term, is the way you stay ahead of inflation.
So what's an investor, who knows how to apply grains of salt, to do? It's very simple: diversify, be patient, and rebalance twice a year...