The key takeaway being, on balance, the global economy looks pretty good.
Just shoot me an email if you'd like to see the graph/commentary under a heading:
- Entering historically worst season of the year; July, August, September.
- Historically-speaking, the Nasdaq 100 breaking below its 50 dma (while not a reliable long-term indicator) doesn't bode well for the next 3 months.
- Despite last week's selloff, tech leads sectors year-to-date
- Japan surveys suggest a solid economy presently
- Northeast Asia PMIs basically mixed, but not at all concerning
- While most Euro-area PMIs missed expectations, all in all, the region's economy looks solid
- U.S. Markit Manuf PMI lackluster
- ISM Manuf Index very strong!
- GM's June numbers missed expectations
- Ford's June sales beat estimates
- While the Eurozone economy picks up, inflation pressures simply don't yet exist, leaving the ECB free to stay easy
- Australia trade numbers very strong! Explained largely by commodity price bounce, as well as global demand
- Global developed market PMIs are showing expansion across the board. Emerging Mkts is where there's some weakness.
- Fed minutes confirm mixed views among voting members. Staff ups their growth projections. Roll-off likely beginning later this year
- Factory order data points to continued broad growth at reasonable pace
- June ISM Services Index beat expectations
- U.S. export growth denotes improving global economy
- Commodity prices higher
- China foreign reserves up
- Canada's jobs numbers best in 7 years
- Very strong industrial production out of Eurozone
- UK economy not looking so good
- Brexit is clearly bad news for Britain's economy
- Financials and Industrials took the weekly lead, last week
- ISMs point to a solid economy going forward
- Commentary from ISMs speak of optimism going forward
- Mixed inflation signals
- Late day buying suggests the smart money is comfortable with equities
- German industrial production surges
- China's CDS spreads at 4-year low
- Consumer Discretionary stocks seeing high short interest heading into earnings season
- Credit growth slowing in Australia
- Italy's industrial production beat expectations
- Next few decades will see electric cars take over
- Britain is the one country not markedly benefiting from Europe's economy
- Canada's central bank bumps benchmark rate a quarter point
- Canadian dollar rallies on rate hike
- Consumer sentiment losing some steam, but not in a concerning manner at this point
- Australian stocks looking up on soft central bank
- Emerging Mkts rallying presumably on the Fed.. I suppose so, but I think the present setup transcends merely the Fed.
- University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment off, but overall remains optimistic
- U.S. industrial production beat expectations. Cap utilization above 76% (high for recent past, but not historically inflationary)
- U.S. breakeven price for a barrel of oil falling
- U.S. stock market breakout and successful retest sets up very well for extended gains
- Monthly MACD looks very bullish here
- New York Stock Exchange Index has successfully tested its 50 day moving average
- While the retail sales number was off in June, the internals were actually pretty good
- China data impressive
- ZEW econ sentiment survey shows growing optimism in major EU countries (although Germany slipped a bit) and Japan. U.S. notably slipping however.
- Foreign buying of treasuries stabilizing lately
- Housing data says good things about the economy
- Philadelphia area capex plans highest in 33 years!
- Oil looks technically and fundamentally better. Energy stocks look technically good.
- Regional surveys, on balance, suggest capex will grow going forward
- The Bank of Japan looks to remain dovish going forward
- The European Central Bank to stay dovish (there's dissent within however) in the face of a growing economy... lack of inflation inspires it.
- Hugely strong tech sector breadth bodes well for returns going forward
- Multinationals benefitting from weaker dollar
- Japanese investors are extremely bullish on India's stocks
- Speculators are very bearish on the dollar
- A much stronger Euro becomes problematic for Euro company earnings
- Euro Stoxx 50 lags global peers as Euro strengthens
- While remaining in expansion mode, flash manuf PMIs among developed nations (with the exception of France), show waning optimism
- There's optimism within Emerging Mkts earnings outlook
- Muni bonds look expensive
- Halliburton says U.S. may slow rig count growth as price stays below $50
- While Eurozone optimism, per the PMIs, may be peaking, growth momentum is very much intact
- Fed model shows a tightening bias for now
- Caterpillar seeing very good numbers!
- 3m disappoints on estimates
- Bank of Japan's newest members have no interest in walking back easing
- Shale producers are cutting back, this could a spark for a second half rebound (energy)
- Business sentiment remains strong in Europe
- China's growth outlook improving, allowing policymakers a window to curb excessive and speculative borrowing
- Swelling Emerging Mkt debt could exacerbate market moves should there be a shock
- Lack of EM distressed debt adds to the potential fallout story
- Treasury VIX action says traders are very sanguine
- Hedge funds are extremely short the dollar
- Key takeaways from today's oil inventory report are, on balance, bullish for the price
- Russia sees fastest economic growth in 5 years
- The Richmond Fed Manuf Survey was, on balance, quite good
- Conference Board's Consumer Confidence came in much better than expected
- European oil companies are seeing their best performance since the plunge in prices 3 years ago
- Rising commodity prices measurably helping China
- German consumer confidence at an all-time high, Spain data looks very impressive, Sweden just okay, Eurozone credit growth falls.
- The world is warming up to China, per the Yuan's pickup in global payments
- Homeownership rising thanks to what was record high rents and low vacancies
- Copper looking very strong technically. It, and iron ore dynamics appear healthier
- French consumer sentiment fell markedly, while Italian economic sentiment hits its strongest since the crisis
- Fund manager U.S. equity positioning -- lack thereof -- favors U.S. equities going forward
- Fund managers' lack of U.S. exposure relative to foreign equities counterintuitively favors U.S. equities going forward
- Heavy European equity positioning among funds, relative to U.S., hurts European equity prospects (counterintuitively) going forward. However, I'm not yet in that camp
- Fund managers heavy EM exposure speaks (counterintuitively) negative about their prospects. Too soon to get bearish, however, in my view
- Fund managers are underweight global bonds. While that would be a contrarian buy signal, I think they're right this time
- Fund managers high cash levels bullish for stocks going forward
- Gold stuck in long-term triangle... looking to break out... I'd take the short side of that trade
- India central bank likely to cut a quarter point next week
- South Korea industrial production missed badly, despite positive PMI. Japan unemployment at cycle lows. Japan's household spending strongest since 2014.
- Europe overall, save for Britain, looks good economically
- One analyst sees this stubbornly low volatility as a ticking timebomb. However, there's lots of data to dispute his opinion...
- Traders are shorting Emerging Mkt bonds big time. Fits my view of a rising dollar and higher U.S. rates going forward
- Bank of Russia likely on pause for now due to low inflation and weak Ruble.. However, economists see more easing in second half
- The potential fallout when the ECB cuts QE should be negated by reinvestment, as it was with the Fed
- Durable goods surged, but it was all about Boeing. Ex-aircraft the report was very mixed.\
- The Eurozone's credit impulse suggest the ECB won't go near raising rates until 2019
- The Euro looks overbought here
- Earnings guidance spread looks very strong at this point in earnings season
- Housing data has missed of late, but not dramatically. Positive setup remains
- Jobless claims continue to point to a very healthy labor market
- Consume confidence spiked higher in July
- Q2 GDP's first estimate looks sold enough, prospects good for second half
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