Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Again, It's 'Presently' Hard Not To Feel Good About the Global Economy

Yesterday we noted that the economy of that huge trading (block) partner of ours who resides across the Atlantic -- along with our own assessment of the U.S. economy -- has us feeling pretty good about the state of the global economy these days. 

Speaking of the U.S., its consumers are presently feeling better about their prospects than they have since the turn of the century: 
Consumer Confidence
Released On 11/28/2017 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2017
Consumer confidence continues to soar, at 129.5 in November which is a new 17-year high and easily surpasses Econoday's top estimate. The strength is derived from the labor market where a very low 16.9 percent describe jobs as currently hard to get. This reading is closely watched and will boost expectations for another strong monthly employment report. And extending strength is expected for the labor market with optimists on the jobs outlook surging nearly 4 percentage points to 22.6 percent and nearly double pessimists who are down 6 tenths to only 11.0 percent. Confidence is likewise booming for the stock market where 46.0 percent see stocks rising over the next year which is up 3.8 points from October. Bears are down to 19.0 percent from last month's 22.7 percent.
The combination of expected gains in jobs together with expected gains for stocks is making for unusual confidence n the year-ahead income outlook where 20.1 percent see gains and only 7.6 percent see declines. This is a core reading and underscores the report's level of strength.
Not favorable, however, are inflation expectations which are down 2 tenths to 4.5 percent which is very low for this reading. Buying plans are mixed with cars, after a spike in October, back down but with housing up.
Wage growth has been limited but so has price inflation which perhaps is another factor boosting income expectations. In any case, consumer confidence as measured by this report and others is enjoying its best run in a generation.

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