Christmas Shopping Season: So Far So Good

In Monday's weekly message, and again in Wednesday's follow up, we mentioned that our macro study just hit its highest score among 20 years of back tests. The message there being that the U.S. economy is presently in very good shape. We should, therefore, expect a very good Christmas shopping season. 

While it's still very early, so far so good:

• Kohl's said it delivered a "record-breaking" Thanksgiving, both in stores and online.
• On Thanksgiving Day, J.C. Penney said its website received the most visits of any day so far this year.
• Macy's said it's on track to sell more than 1 million coats, sweaters and fleece jackets by the end of the weekend.

GlobalData's preliminary tracking figures have already predicted total Black Friday sales to have risen the most since 2011. The National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's trade group, is calling for an increase as much as 4 percent, with those results set to be released Tuesday afternoon.

Adobe Insights, which measures 80 percent of online transactions at 100 major U.S. retailers, said a record $5.03 billion was spent online by the end of Black Friday, an increase of 17 percent from 2016.