Sunday, April 15, 2018

This Week's Message: Long-term trend intact, short-term setup in question...

Bringing you this week's message early, as I'll be away from the office Tuesday through Friday (what'll you do with all that extra reading time?). 

While recent volatility has delivered some short-term technical damage to equities, the longer-term bullish trend remains intact; per the three long-term trend indicators (the slope of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average, the positioning and slope of our weekly moving average indicator, and the signal indicated in our monthly Bollinger Band chart) featured below: 

click any chart to enlarge...

As for general conditions, our PWA Index scored a +55 this week; which, per the chart below, is an historically healthy reading:

As for the near-term setup, as I type futures are pointing to a strong open tomorrow morning. The one-and-done feel of Friday's bombing of Syria no doubt has traders anxious to get in front of what they (at the moment) anticipate to be a nice relief rally. After all, this is a bull market you know...

If the only apparent exogenous risk were Syria, I'd say the odds of a strong upward move through the end of April would be rather high. However, if Thursday's Wall Street Journal had it right, last week's calmer tone around trade is set to turn sour, and that, I assure you, won't work for the market:

"WASHINGTON—The Trump White House, confident that its hard-line strategy is succeeding, is planning to ratchet up the pressure on China by focusing on new tariffs and threatening to block Chinese technology investment in the U.S., according to officials familiar with the strategy."
WSJ, Thursday, April 12, 2018
The question in that event will be whether positive earnings reports can overcome negative trade rhetoric. We'll see...

Good thing you and I are long-term investors!

Have a nice week!

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