Wednesday, January 9, 2019

It's Very Windy Out There!

Apple just cut its iPhone production by another 10% and the World Bank just lowered its global growth forecast for 2019, and the stock market just posted its 8th up day out of the last 10.

Make no mistake, stocks rising amid what sounds like seriously bad news is (now don't get excited!) seriously bullish.

Always remember, the market is nothing more than a reflection of the actions of humans, nothing more, nothing less.

As I said in this week's video, the underlying current (general conditions) is still moving in the direction of expansion (albeit slower than even a few months ago; hence, the World Bank's less rosy outlook), while the winds of late have literally pushed the ship (the market) backward, against the current. Those winds lightening up, if not reversing, would be a very good thing for the stock market.

Back to those humans: The ones who trade stocks often pay little or no attention to the underlying current; to them the surface wind (what stock prices are doing) is everything. All the while, the actions of their 7 billion Earthly neighbors as they work, play, save, spend, or not, determines the direction of the current (i.e., the prospects for economic growth and corporate earnings the world over). 

Our experience has been that if you can identify the direction of the current and invest accordingly, while recognizing that it will get extremely windy at times -- yet all the while pointing with the current -- the odds of long-term success are in your favor.

Again, for now, the current appears to still be moving toward growth. And, yes, it's very windy out there!

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