Wednesday, January 23, 2019

This Morning's Log Entry


Selloff yesterday turned out to be on either erroneous or reversed news regarding the cancelling of upcoming trade talks. The market bounced back strongly this morning, however the gains are waning. Headlines suggest the market struggling here is about weakening economic growth prospects.

I don’t believe the headline narrative is accurately capturing traders' concerns. In fact the slowdown has been widely anticipated and is, at this juncture, simply a slowing of the growth rate, and is not flashing legitimate recession warnings. Thus, this is actually good overall near-term stock market news, as it’ll stay the hands of central banks, which has been a concern of traders to this point.

The angst in my view is clearly around the mixed signals related to U.S./China trade talks, concerns over the prospects for ultimately a viable deal, and the reality that the government shutdown is beginning to do a number on the U.S. economy, and it gets worse every day it continues.

This is the stuff of huge stock market rallies: The shutdown is of course the definition of temporary phenomena; any resulting economic slowdown, barring the emergence of macro recessionary conditions in the meantime, will see a correcting surge in future quarter(s). The inking of a U.S./China trade deal (hugely in the political best interest of the parties, and the economic best interest of the world) – outside of recessionary conditions – stands to be substantially bullish for equities as well.

In the meantime, technically-driven analysts still expect a test of the 12/24 low; which is the norm for similar corrections past. As I type the S&P is dancing right on 2630 support (resistance?)...

No comments:

Post a Comment