Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Charts of the Day: It's All About Trade, At the Moment

Traders came into the morning expecting a strongly positive statement from the U.S. team after concluding 3 days of talks with China's trade negotiators.

Here's the S&P 500 out of the gates (the gray area separates yesterday's close from this morning's open):

Here's the released statement:
On January 7-9, an official delegation from the United States led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish held meetings in Beijing with Chinese officials to discuss ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity, and balance in trade relations between our two countries. The officials also discussed the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement. The meetings were held as part of the agreement reached by President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires to engage in 90 days of negotiations with a view to achieving needed structural changes in China with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft of trade secrets for commercial purposes, services, and agriculture. The talks also focused on China's pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products and services from the United States. The United States officials conveyed President Trump's commitment to addressing our persistent trade deficit and to resolving structural issues in order to improve trade between our countries.

Absolutely nothing there. Not bad, but nothing that screams progress either. 

Here's the S&P within a few minutes of the release of that statement:

Another up day (which would make 8 out of the last 10) probably requires some positive commentary out of the White House, or China, or both.

And, remember -- if you're watching every tick (not my advice) -- you should anticipate big swings in both directions for the time being...

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