Thursday, January 24, 2019

Why The Market Hates The Trade War

For readers who perhaps don't sympathize with my repetitiously-stated concerns over protectionism, perhaps they'll take the latest from Fortune's CEO survey to heart.

Here are the highlights:  emphasis mine...
There was a sharp rise in the number of CEOs who say the economy will decline in the next 12 months, hitting 29%, up from 5% last year. Still, 42% think the economy will improve (down from 57% last year.)
– While the rise in pessimism was found in every region of the world, it was most pronounced in North America. Trade conflict was a top reason for rising pessimism in both North America and China.
The U.S. fell sharply as the top target for companies’ growth ambitions, going from the choice of 46% last year to just 27% this year. It still topped second-place China, which fell from 33% last year to 24% this year. This suggests trade tension is hurting growth prospects in both countries.
The U.S. is no longer top territory for overseas investment and growth for Chinese CEOs. It dropped precipitously from the top choice of 59% of Chinese CEOs last year to just 17% this year and fell behind Australia.
This is among the stuff I've been preaching about ad nauseam for the past couple of years, and, like it, or agree with it, or not, it helps explain why the stock market (players in the aggregate), as evidenced in the trading action, utterly hates/fears the prospects for a protracted trade war.

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