While a 35% probability of recession over the next 12 months may not sound like much, it's the highest reading in the history of this particular survey. And as we've been hinting herein, there's cause to be concerned about the potential depth (pain) of the next recession when it ultimately gets here: click to enlarge...
Judging by how futures are trading this morning (it's 60 minutes before the open), traders certainly aren't fretting recession at the moment; equity futures are rallying hard on China's announcement that it'll hold off on retaliating against the hike in tariffs announced last week. Although they're suggesting that last week's move by the U.S. will need to be voided if serious negotiations are to resume.
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