Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Morning Note: The Bull, The Bear, And The Simply Objective Participant

FYI I'm on the road all week so I'll be light in terms of frequency and content herein for the next few days.

U.S. equities are all over the place this morning. Over the past couple of minutes the Dow has gone from nearly positive to down triple digits, to down 70 as I type. The S&P has been green to red and back to green presently, the Nasdaq has stayed green by roughly a half-percent. 

Amazingly, given the latest regarding Hong Kong, China and the US, Asian stocks were mostly green across the board last night. Europe, however, is notably in the red this morning.

Oil's down 1.6%, gold's flat, silver's up .6% and copper's seeing a nice rally this morning, up 1.3%. Ag's mixed.

Treasuries are trading higher (yields lower), while the dollar index is up .15%.

In a nutshell, while stocks have staged a whale of a rally off of the March low, even the most passionate bull would tell you that it's 100% predicated on the prospects for government intervention as far as the eye can see. The passionate bear would tell you that, therefore, the market at present levels is living on borrowed time, and that economic gravity will ultimately prevail. The market participant who strives to allocate assets based on his/her objective assessment of general conditions would tell you that the risk in equities is exceedingly high at the moment, and, therefore, to hedge, and to diversify some of your assets away from the pack into areas that do well in a profoundly uncertain, money-printing, suppressed interest rate environment. I.e., add commodities to the mix...

We'd be the latter...

Have a great day!

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