I've been hinting that many of what we deem to be pertinent data points have been flashing threatening signals of late. However, per this week's analysis, not yet to the point that has us lowering their scores.
In fact, thanks to an uptick in mortgage purchase applications (our only needle-mover this week), our overall score moved yet another notch closer to the green; this week we're at -4.08.
Here's that mortgage apps chart:
"Respondent's said that "on balance, they tightened their standards on Commercial and Industrial Loans on firms of all sizes", plus they reported weaker demand from their customers for the same. They also reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all major categories of commercial real estate loans."
"Today's weekly jobless claims number was the first in 5 weeks that actually saw an increase by a not-small 41k. The previous week's number was revised up as well. In our past couple of macro updates I've pointed to data points whose graphs were showing ominous signs of rolling back over. All of this suggests that indeed the next few weeks are likely to be tough ones."
Auto Sales: Nice rebound off the low, but not yet back to their 3-year downtrend line (and rolling over a bit as of last month):
"...this is way too soon for comfort to see the CAB begin to rollover.
Representing the most ubiquitous input to the across the board manufacturing process (there's chemicals in virtually all manufactured goods), the CAB is one of the best forward-looking indicators of overall health in the economy."