If you're looking for something pithy and provocative on the election this morning, well, you won't find it here. And if you're baffled by this morning's 580-point Dow rally, I hear ya. That said, if all I knew at the moment was that the dollar was down 0.74% (that's big), I'd say, given the present setup, and where the dollar -- and stocks -- have been of late, a big stock market rally today is a no brainer.
Could it be that "the market" is already looking past the election? Perhaps, but a 35 VIX (pricing of volatility in SP500 options) says that traders, despite this week's rally, are hugely on edge. Let's hope it's not a Wile E. Coyote sort of edge, if you know what I mean.
Asian stocks had a big night, with all but 1 of the 16 markets we track closing notably in the green. On top of impressive PMI's (mentioned in yesterday's note), I suspect that the Australian Central Bank cutting rates and upping the money printing overnight -- and literally acknowledging that their doing it to boost asset prices (oh, how central bankers ignore history 😒) -- had something to do with it as well.
European markets are screaming higher literally across the board this morning: We can talk again about yesterday's PMIs, and/or we can talk about a bounce from hugely oversold levels after last week's drubbing.
U.S. major averages are having quite the morning so far: Dow up 583 points (2.16%), S&P 500 up 1.96%, Nasdaq up 1.86%, Russell 2000 up 1.67%.
The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 6.38%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is down 4.32%.
Oil futures are up 3.04%, gold's up 0.43%, silver's up 0.40%, copper futures are up 0.92% and the ag complex is up 0.40%.
The 10-year treasury is getting slammed (yield rising big) and the dollar's getting hammered, -0.77% as I type.
Boosted by big moves in Eurozone equities, financials, industrials, banks and Asia-Pac stocks, but, while zero positions are in the red, muted a bit by modest gains in commodities, our core portfolio is up a still very nice 1.15% so far this morning.
The wise former Supreme Court Justice (from 1916 to 1929) Louis Brandeis offered us something "most important" to ponder:
"The most important office, and the one which all of us can and should fill, is that of private citizen."Have a great day!