Monday, November 9, 2020

Morning Note: Stay Tuned...

Vaccine optimism has global stocks screaming higher this morning. Pfizer's vaccine, in a large study, reportedly prevented 90% of infections. Cause for celebration (or at least great anticipation), for obviously much more than investment purposes!

Asian stocks, however, closed before the news hit. Nevertheless, global stocks were in rally mode for other reasons; all 16 markets we track were in the green at last night's close. Europe's definitely in celebration mode this morning, with 18 of the 19 bourses we follow hugely in the green. Of course the U.S. is as well: Dow up 1,170 points (4.13%), S&P 500 up 3.08%, Nasdaq (lagging) up 1.21%, Russell 2000 up 5.76%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 5.39%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is down 3.77%.

Oil futures are hugely higher, up 10.15%, gold (victim of profit taking and rotation this morning) is down 4.32%, silver (") is down 5.78%, copper futures are up 0.96% and the ag complex is up 0.77%.

The 10-year treasury is of course getting creamed (yield rallying) and the dollar is up a solid 0.31%.

Led by energy, banks, financials, Eurozone equities and industrials, our core portfolio is up 2.00% so far this morning. Silver, gold and the yen are drags.

Yes, stocks are appropriately rallying hard this morning, and, believe it or not, I'm not going to pour cold water on the market's near-term prospects. 

Like we said in our October 28 message

"Should, for example, the next administration (??) announce a tax-hike on rich folk the same day the FDA gives Pfizer's vaccine and Novartis's therapy the green lights, and a $2 trillion stimulus bill is passed to boot, believe me, taxes ain't going to matter, stocks will be screaming higher that day. Even if said tax hike extends to long-term capital gains...

So, while a stimulus bill and covid remedies are not likely to occur on the same day, it's a hugely safe bet that they're both in our near-term future."

Now, this isn't cold water (just sayin), but no doubt such news will indeed call into question the size of the next stimulus package (clearly, a market focus), as well as the prospects for interest rates going forward (a systemic risk issue, believe me).

Stay tuned...

Have a great day!

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