Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Morning Note: "A key in 2021"

Asian equities fared okay overnight, with 12 of the 16 markets we track closing modestly in the green. Europe, on the other hand, is in a sour mood this morning; all but 2 of the 19 bourses we track are trading lower as I type. U.S. Major averages are taking a breather this morning as well: Dow down 316 points (-1.06%), S&P 500 down 0.77%, Nasdaq down 0.34%, Russell 2000 down 1.47%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 4.63%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is up 2.37%.

Oil futures are down 0.22%, gold's down 0.08%, silver's down 1.0%, copper futures are down 0.61% and the ag complex is up 0.53%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar's off by 0.26%.

Our core mix, led by ag commodities, the yen and base metals (our only three positions in the green this morning) is having a little better go of it than stocks (save for the Nasdaq) thus far; it's down 0.38%. Banks, industrials, financials, silver and energy the biggest drags.

Economist Peter Boockvar -- writing on this morning's somewhat disappointing retail sales report -- ponders what we've been pondering, and discussing herein, about the longer-term effect of the government transferring surplus cash, in concentrated fashion, into people's wallets:

"A key in 2021 will be how much on the goods side saw a pull forward in 2020 and what is more sustainable. I’ll say this as an example, people are not buying new laptops in 2021 to nearly the same extent after the rush to buy in 2020. The same can be said about many things bought for one’s home this year."

More on that tomorrow, in our main weekly message.

Have a great day!

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