Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Morning Note: Oddities Emerge...

"I've done a ton of research" was the phrase the young basketball player who sparked up a crypto conversation with me on Saturday kept repeating throughout our friendly, call it debate.

While I commended him for his willingness to do more than simply follow the crowd, I encouraged him to maybe do a half-ton on the arguments of those who believe he's been sucked into a bubble the likes of what befell the tulip investor of 1630's Holland. I then encouraged him to study that, and other similar historical events, as well.

My parting contribution was to stress that without, believe it or not, COVID -- i.e., without $10 trillion of global money printing --  we would not be having the conversation (and, by the way, we weren't talking about bitcoin), and to invest only what he can afford to lose.

Speaking of oddities that emerge when excess liquidity sloshes throughout the financial system, here's from Bloomberg yesterday:

"If you think a rush by companies to sell their shares is a bad omen for the market, imagine a scenario where most of the sales come from firms that don’t make money. 
It’s happening now. Since the end of March, almost 100 unprofitable companies, including GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., have raised money through secondary offerings, twice as many as coming from profitable firms,"

Only in a world where money's got nowhere else to go would it dare find its way into the stocks of companies that were essentially left for dead before I could spell coronavirus. "Bad omen?" Well, it's certainly not a good omen...

Asian stocks had a rough night last night, with 11 of the 16 markets we track closing notably lower.

Europe's not faring much better this morning, with 13 of the 19 bourses we follow in the red, as I type.

U.S. equities are mixed to start the session: Dow up 139 points (0.41%), SP500 up 0.15%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.39%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.12%, Nasdaq Comp down 0 08%, Russell 2000 up 0.30%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 0.51%. VXN (Nasdaq 100 i.v.) is up 0.72%.

Oil futures are up 0.58%, gold's down 1.38%, silver's down 1.66%, copper futures are down 0.91% and the ag complex is down 0.30%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up a not-small 0.27%.

Led by wind stocks, energy stocks, solar stocks, banks and AT&T -- but dragged by silver, gold, gold miners, uranium miners and emerging market equities -- our core portfolio is off 0.07% to start the day.

“The present is the past rolled up for action, and the past is the present unrolled for understanding”  --Ariel Durant

Have a great day!

No comments:

Post a Comment