Thursday, June 10, 2021

Morning Note: Sticky

This week's main message is coming your way shortly, and it's a bit of a read (an important one 😎), so I'll keep the morning note brief.

May CPI was released this morning, and, yes, the month-on-month numbers, particularly in the services space (far more sticky [as in stick around] than the goods space) support our thesis that this go-round inflation -- at a somewhat higher level than we've grown accustomed -- is likely to, well, stick around.

I'll have more for you on inflation, and this morning's jobless claims number, in this weekend's macro update.

Asian equities leaned green overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track (3 were shuttered) closing higher.

Europe's mixed so far this morning, with 3 of the bourses we follow closed, 7 of the remaining 16 are in the red as I type.

U.S. equities are higher across the board to start the day: Dow up 275 points (0.80%), SP500 up 0.52%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.67%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.59%, Russell 2000 up 0.31%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility is down 7.27%. VXN (Nasdaq 100 i.v.) is down 4.95%.

Oil futures are up 0.87%, gold's down 0.10%, silver's up 0.02%, copper futures are down 1.13% and the ag complex is up 0.39%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.05%.

Led by energy stocks, base metals miners, solar stocks, bank stocks and uranium miners -- but dragged by ALB (lithium miner), base metals futures, Mexican equities, MP (rare earth miner) and solar stocks -- our core mix is up 0.36% to start the session.

I'm thinking about the young student "trader" -- and all others presently caught up in the manias of meme stocks and cryptocurrencies -- I mentioned last week as I post the following from Galbraith's essential book A Short History of Financial Euphoria:

"So much, as I’ve said, is clear. Less understood is the mass psychology of the speculative mood. When it is fully comprehended, it allows those so favored to save themselves from disaster.
Given the pressure of this crowd psychology, however, the saved will be the exception to a very broad and binding rule. They will be required to resist two compelling forces: one, the powerful personal interest that develops in the euphoric belief, and the other, the pressure of public and seemingly superior financial opinion that is brought to bear on behalf of such belief.
Both stand as proof of Schiller’s dictum that the crowd converts the individual from reasonably good sense to the stupidity against which, as he also said, “the very Gods Themselves contend in vain.”"

Have a great day!

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