Friday, June 18, 2021

Morning Note: The Punch is Spiked, The Market's Addicted

Friday's our deep-dive day around here, and given the week we've had I'm anxious to get to the scoring of our index, checking correlations, assessing the technicals, yada, yada -- and getting back to you with our weekly macro update. Soooo, this morning's note's going to be short and sweet.

Suffice to say that, in light of the gyrations, palpitations and bifurcations we've seen in financial markets post an utterly weak attempt on the part of the Fed to suggest that they would indeed do a little something-something to quell inflation, well... clearly, markets are trading on/drinking the punch -- and the punch is spiked, and the market's addicted. Even hint at pulling the punchbowl and see what you get! 

Asian equities leaned slightly green overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Europe's a mess this morning, with 18 of the 19 bourses we follow down notably as I type.

U.S. stocks ain't nothing to write home about either: Dow down 445 points (-1.33%), SP500 down 0.87%, SP500 Equal Weight down 1.14%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.35%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.43%, Russell 2000 down 1.16%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 10.76%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is up 8.01%.

Oil futures are up 1.21%, gold's up 0.14%, silver's up 0.33%, copper futures are down 0.51% and the ag complex is up 1.24%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up 0.40%.

Led by ag futures, MP (rare earth miner), silver, gold and gold miners -- but dragged by banks, Eurozone equities, ALB (lithium miner), Asian Pac equities and Mexican equities -- our core portfolio is off 0.65% to start the session.

Options expert Euan Sinclair speaks the truth:

"...even though we don't understand how aggregate behavior emerges, it is very clear that markets cater to irrational behavior rather than eradicate it."

Have a great day!


  1. Looking forward to you thoughts.

    1. your*
      Can't seem to find a way to edit or delete/repost the comment.