Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Morning Note: Likely No Fed-Relent Just Yet

Equity market futures were pointing to a lower open until the closely followed (for obvious reasons these days) Employment Cost Index came in a bit softer than expectations (note the yellow line [quarter-on-quarter change]:

Investors/traders continue to cling to any hint that they (in the aggregate) -- as evidenced by, for example, this year's equity market performance, and the following -- know the Fed better than they know themselves.

Here's what the market (via Fed funds futures) expects from the Fed during the course of this year:

Here's what the Fed members themselves (each dot represents an individual member's projection) expected for this year at their last meeting: 

Their statements since then suggest that they're not at this point ready to relent to market expectations… We’ll know for sure tomorrow. 

Stay tuned...

Asian stocks were most red overnight, with 13 of the 16 markets we track closed lower.

Same for Europe so far this morning, with 16 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

US equity averages are up a bit to start the session: Dow by 8 points (0.0.02%), SP500 up 0.20%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.20%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.27%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.31%, Russell 2000 up 0.63%.

The VIX sits at 19.83, down 0.55%.

Oil futures are up 0.45%, gold's up 0.03%, silver's down 0.19%, copper futures are down 0.45% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.58%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.03%.

Among our 36 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and short-term bond ETF), 22 -- led by Brazil equities, Amazon, Vietnam equities, water stocks and Albemarle -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers being led lower by Financial stocks, Mexico equities, defense stocks, metals miners and utilities.

"If I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said."

--Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan

Have a great day!

1 comment: