Monday, November 20, 2023

Morning Note: Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update

This, from Howard Marks, captures the messaging herein of late:

"’re unlikely to succeed for long if you haven’t dealt explicitly with risk. The first step consists of understanding it. The second step is recognizing when it’s high. The critical final step is controlling it."

Not much to add this morning to Friday's video commentaries (link, link)... And while there's not a ton of data to parse this shortened (for markets), week, there are nevertheless a few releases that are key inputs to our economic framework, not the least of which being October's Leading Economic Indicators (already released this morning, and coming in worse than expected)... And, to be sure, given the nature of this year’s uber-concentrated rally in stocks, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s earnings announcement come tomorrow… Make no mistake, that’s not-small in terms of the equity market’s prospects the remainder of the year.

In the meantime, here's your weekly Sector, Region and Asset Class Results Update:

Asian stocks leaned green overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track closing higher.

Same for Europe so far this morning, with 12 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

US equity averages are higher to start the session: Dow by 77 points (0.22%), SP500 up 0.27%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.02%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.51%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.51%, Russell 2000 up 0.49%.

As for Friday’s session, US equities closed higher: Dow up 0.1%, SP500 up 0.1%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.1%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.1%, Russell 2000 up 1.4%.

This morning the VIX sits at 13.79.

Oil futures are up 2.29%, nat gas futures are down 1.25%, gold's down 0.52%, silver's down 0.99%, copper futures are up 0.96% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.25%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.29%.

Among our 32 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and money market funds), 20 -- led by EWZ (Brazil equities), Dutch Bros, REMX (rare earth miners), VNM (Vietnam equities) and DEM (emerging mkt equities) -- are in the green so far this morning... The losers are being led lower by SLV (silver), Range Resources, GLD (gold), PHO (water services stocks) and XLP (consumer staples stocks).

Have a great day!

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