Friday, November 17, 2023

The Near-Term Bullish Case, What Say TGT, WMT and CSCO, and Nvidia's Setup (video)

In this morning's video (recorded yesterday) I mention Walmart's outlook on the consumer... To really pound home their expectations; this from the CEO:

"We may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come."

I can not stress enough what such a scenario would do to corporate earnings, particularly this go-round. 

Think in terms of the underlying cost structure for companies that has developed these past 3 years... Inflation, and companies' ability -- thanks to that massive stimulus handed out to consumers -- to raise prices at historic rates has kept their margins in the green, and therefore kept them, and the markets, very afloat to this point.

Imagine a future (and -- per what you've gathered from our parsing of the data as well as commentary from the likes of Walmart's CEO -- one that may be merely months away) where prices have to come down amid corporate cost structures that are, let's say, far more sticky than the prices they can charge.

Yes, that's the makings of a very messy, recessionary, economy (rising unemployment, yada yada).

Clients, I simply can't stress enough how important these video commentaries are under present circumstances... If you haven't been catching them lately, I'm starting with just a monologue on the world as we currently see it, then presenting you the exit ramp before I get into the technical weeds.

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

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