Thursday, September 14, 2017

The Global Answer

I'd say that the most commonly uttered client question in review meetings of late has been, words to the effect, "How can the market be doing so well with all of the uncertainty in the world?"

The frequency of that question suggests that too many of our clients aren't clicking click here to continue in the blog alerts.

Anyways.... Manu Bhaskaran, director of Centennial Group International -- and expert in economic and political risk assessment and forecasting in Asia -- offers up the global answer:
Economic activity is now expanding across virtually all parts of the globe, with exceptions only in countries suffering political crises such as Venezuela or parts of the Middle East. The big developed economies are performing well and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development lead indicators suggest that this will continue. China’s growth has stabilised and the latest purchasing manager surveys for both manufacturing and services show that activity is holding up well despite government measures to cool real estate and bank lending. India appears to have finally put the shock of its demonetisation and imposition of GST behind it, with the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index finally moving back into expansion. Moreover, large emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, Turkey, South Africa and Nigeria, which have endured recessions in the past year, are seeing a modest recovery.
It is the nature of such a globally synchronised recovery that recoveries in one region feed into others in a mutually reinforcing upcycle: That is how upside surprises to growth emerge. That makes the recovery more resilient to shocks such as political or financial stresses.
And of course there's always Jesse Livermore:
"Not even a world war can keep the stock market from being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are bearish. And all a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions."

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