Friday, January 3, 2020

Some Comforting And Some Not-So-Comforting Data

Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop shared some stats this morning on past market reactions to U.S. airstrikes. He prefaced them with:

"The long history of such events shows that the market reactions tend to be brief."
Here's the history:  click to enlarge...

Of course there's a lot to play out over the coming days, weeks, months and so on.

On another note this morning, something that's been playing out for months is a notable weakening in the manufacturing space.

The hugely-watched (and component of our macro index) Institution For Supply Management Manufacturing Survey for December was just released. It came in at 47.2; its lowest reading since June 2009. Below 50, by the way, denotes overall contraction.

Here's our graph, red shaded areas highlight past recessions (not a good look):  click to enlarge...

Here's directly from the report:  click to enlarge...

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