While the graph below (red shaded areas highlight past recessions) doesn't look all that rosy (trend of lower highs and lower lows), today's reading indeed conflicts (positively) with last week's dismal manufacturing survey results (which, negatively-speaking, tends to lead in terms of trend), and reads encouraging in terms of near-term recession risk:
Here's directly from the report. It's virtually all about sentiment. I.e., per the areas I red-dotted, actual activity isn't all that inspiring:
Click to enlarge...
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