Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Chart of the Day: Job Openings Closing

Thought about holding this for the weekend macro update, but this morning's release of the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report deserves its own blog post.

As we've stressed herein for months the consumer is the glue holding this longest-ever economic expansion together. We're thus focusing on the jobs market in particular.

While the labor market appears healthy enough -- recall last month's strong number -- the fact that the rate of change of job openings (2nd panel below) has plummeted to lows we've only see during recession is troubling. As we've illustrated herein ad nauseam, history suggests that labor is the last thing to go, and when it does contractions tend to come quickly.

Click to enlarge...

Like I said in our weekly message earlier today, the powers-that-be have tremendous incentive to stimulate like mad! Not that they haven't been already, and not, alas -- as this report implies -- that it's been working; except that is for the stock market...

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