Friday, February 7, 2020

On Today's Jobs Number

Really good headline jobs number, but, as always (and as evidenced by the rally in gold and bonds, and the drop in stocks* on the news) the devil is in the details.

Total New Jobs: 225,000

The Good:
Education and health care combined to add 70,000.
Construction added 44,000
Leisure and hospitality added 36,000
Transportation and warehousing added 28,300
Professional and business services added 21,000
Government added 19,000
Wholesale trade added 8,400
Information added 5,000

The Bad:
Financial activities lost 1,000
Utilities lost 1,400
Retail trade lost 8,300
Manufacturing lost 12,000

In a nutshell, the consumer (save for the retail sector job-loss [Amazon-caused??]) remains the glue holding the economy together. While red flags continue to wave on the industrial side of things.

The longer-term trend ex-education and health care paints a more nuanced picture about the overall state of economic conditions:

*With regard to stocks selling off on the news this morning, there are of course other factors in play. The news out of China is concerning to say the least and I'm not sure stocks have fully discounted the potential global economic ramifications of even the business disruptions that have occurred thus far. Could be that once the jobs number was out of the way traders began focusing on the virus impact. That said, the day is very young and most of the dips of late have nevertheless been getting bought...

No comments:

Post a Comment