Sunday, June 26, 2022

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

If, among other things, market action -- across equities (breadth readings in particular), commodities and fixed income -- is a fair harbinger of things to come, our mid-cycle slowdown thesis is simply wrong. I.e., markets of late — and much of the punditry who stake their claims of predictive prowess on them — are signaling recession is on the near-term horizon, if not already here. 

The fact that our model hasn’t yet placed us there of course doesn’t mean that it won’t very soon. But in that we’re not the least bit interested in being see-we-told-you-so heroes, we’ll simply wait till our work says simply that near-term recession odds trump continued expansion odds. The last time it did was in August 2019; recession followed 5 months later. 

So why doesn’t it now?

Here you go:

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.