As clients know, our assessment of go-forward general conditions, alas, jibes -- in a it's-different-this-time sense -- with the following from one of today's most thoughtful macro commentators, Grant Williams (the featured guest in the latest global macro addition of the Top Traders Unplugged podcast):
"Now, it's going to be a terrible, terrible, time for retail investors who are used to passive and are buying the Cathie Wood stories and are buying all these wonderful stories about progress and technology and 50% returns."
"...you're going to see things happen I suspect in the next 5 to 10 years that most people who've come late to markets over this last couple of years of kind of frenzied speculation think are either impossible or when they happen completely unfair. And they'll want someone to step in and fix it for them..."
While, indeed, we firmly believe that the next several years (if not decades) will produce a vastly different set of challenges and opportunities than folks have grown accustomed to, we do believe that the opportunities will be profound, just different and unexpected -- and I suspect grossly unexploited by the retail investor who's been lulled by what they've come to believe (ultimately ill-conceived) about how markets, and economies, work...
Agree! Thanks for this quick thought. I was and still am very amazed on how many investors actually listen to Cathie Wood.
ReplyDeleteAn article just came out this morning by David Lynch at Washington Post. The title reads: "Despite fears, economy shows resilience: Why recent warnings of a recession could be overblown". Whatever the verdict is, time will tell. The current data suggest that the job market is hot. Companies are still trying to fill talents, especially skilled labors that require working outside compared to an in-door office environment.
ReplyDeleteYeah, overall the labor market is still strong... Although we're beginning to see pockets of potentially serious weakness. The tech space, particularly the recently-hot startup space, looks like it could be rolling over hard (with regard to labor). The gloom seems to be growing quite rapidly across silicon valley. But that -- weakness among certain sectors -- is consistent with our present position on the economy, which is mid-cycle slowdown... Now, that said, recessions are preceded by slowdowns. So we have to be completely openminded, and on our toes...
ReplyDeleteAlways appreciate your feedback Sam!