Friday, June 17, 2022

Morning Note: Simmering Setups

So, suffice to say that the Bank of Japan (BOJ), by holding pat, didn't blow anything up overnight (other than [make that "down"]  the yen). But, make no mistake, this is a simmering macro setup that... well... continues to simmer with potentially meaningful global macro ramifications as it plays out.

Stocks are signaling somewhat of a sigh of relief in the pre-market (although rapidly losing steam as I type). But of course the day is young, and it's a whopper in terms of options expirations. Hmm.....

As I noted yesterday morning, the market melted down a bit the night before on news that the Swiss Nat'l Bank (SNB) hiked rates for the first time in over a decade. I suggested that traders feared that could be a prelude to the soon-to-follow BOJ rate decision. Well, again, that didn't pan out, but there's another not-small concern simmering around that SNB rate move. You see, along with delivering a surprise rate hike, the SNB governor made specific reference to what they're willing to do to support the currency -- sell foreign securities, that is. And, well... some 39% of the banks' foreign reserves are in US dollars, of which a major portion is reportedly held in US equities... Hmm...

While our 3,500 S&P 500 downside target continues to make sense to us, suffice to say that global macro conditions are waning to the point that could have us seriously re-thinking that scenario over the coming weeks/months...

Today's when we do our weekly deep dive into the data, score our various indicators, and so on. So I'll keep this morning's note brief and circle back later with your video update...

Asian equities struggled overnight, with 11 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe's catching a bid this morning, with all but 4 of the 19 bourses we follow trading higher as I type.

US stocks are up to start the session: Dow up 81 points (0.31%), SP500 up 0.56%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.51%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.07%, Nasdaq Comp up 1.13%, Russell 2000 up 1.23%.

The VIX sits at 32.15, down 2.43%.

Oil futures are down 2.77%, gold's down 0.48%, silver's down 0.89%, copper futures are down 1.38% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.50%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up a big 1.05%.

Among our 38 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and short-term bond ETF), 26 -- led by solar stocks, Albemarle, MP Materials, AT&T and healthcare stocks -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by base metals futures, energy stocks, Dutch Bros, silver and Asia Pac stocks.

"Humanity’s capacity to invent solutions to its problems and to identify how to make things better has proven to be far more powerful than all of its problems combined."

--Dalio, Ray. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail 

Have a great day!


  1. Thanks Marty! I was thinking this morning about what you said a few days ago. People, especially the hedge fund managers, are insane about their valuation of stocks in general. Examples like Tesla and Amazon and the tech company like Zoom were and still are completely overvalued. But they continue to push higher and higher to 10X, 20X, and even 50X of their earnings. I do believe inflation is at its peak; people are cautiously spending every dollar they earn; Intel stops all hiring despite factories expansion; and Tesla lays off a lot of their employees. We are at an inflection point that inflation will drop from here. Fed Powell needs to constantly gauge and recalibrate interest rate increases to ensure that they are adequate and not hammered the economy. I do think that 2% inflation is not reasonable. We may have to live with 3%, 4%, or maybe even 5% inflation for the future.

  2. You bet Sam. And all valid points.