Thursday, December 22, 2022

Chart of the Day: Pre-Election History Conflicts With Our First Half 2023 View

As clients and regular readers know, we're not bullish on US stocks (as a group) the first half of next year, but we are open to all possibilities.

As I've stated recently, my greatest hesitation on our economic and market view for early next year is that it seems to have become consensus... I.e., all too often (but not always, mind you) the consensus -- particularly when it becomes overwhelming -- gets it wrong.

Carson Group's Chief Strategist Ryan Detrick acknowledges the consensus, then, with some history on stocks and the presidential cycle, resists it:

"I've done this for more than two decades.
Rarely have I ever seen everyone agree on something like everyone expects the first half of '23 to be bad for stocks.
Haven't heard many point out the first quarter in a pre-election year was lower only once since 1950 (up 17 of 18)."


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