Monday, December 19, 2022

Morning Note: Careful With (reacting to) That Headline

Before we get into this morning's brief message, two heads up:

1. Blog posts will be a bit sparse for the next couple of weeks as I devote my writing time to our year-end message.

2. Clients, today is "ex-dividend" day for the majority of the ETFs in our core portfolio... So, if you're one to frequently check your account, you'll note that today's move won't jibe (it'll be lower) with asset markets, as shares will reflect the dividend payout... This Thursday you'll notice a difference as well (it'll be higher), as those dividends are credited to your account(s).

Asian equities struggled overnight, with 14 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe's mostly green so far this morning, with 17 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.

US stocks are lower to start the session: Dow down 29 points (0.09%), SP500 down 0.37%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.53%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.68%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.73%, Russell 2000 down 0.62%.

The VIX sits at 22.45, down 0.75%.

Oil futures are up 1.85%, gold's down 0.10%, silver's down 0.73%, copper futures are up 0.60% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.61.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.05%.

Per the above, being "ex-dividend" day precludes the usual winners/losers update this morning.

The below helps us understand the at times sensationalization of perhaps otherwise benign news items... It's also imperative to understand, from an investment standpoint, as headlines can absolutely move markets in the short-run, too often inspiring investor reactions that are not conducive to long-run success.
"There is plenty of evidence to show that Americans have shorter attention spans than they used to, and this has had a profound effect on a variety of entities, including television networks, advertisers, schools, toy companies, food companies, and political campaigns. It seems that keeping peoples' attention has become a chore."

--Crescenzi, Anthony. Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets

Have a great day!

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