Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Morning Note: The Convenience, and the Inconvenience, of Last Week's Jobs Number

Two public officials will be called on to address the implications of last week's shocking (shockingly strong) jobs number.

Ironically, the January employment data will be resoundingly celebrated by one, while the other will likely hem and haw all around it, characterizing it as one data point amid otherwise weakening data, and, while not entirely dismissing it, will, well, likely, dismiss its potential for moving the needle on rate hikes going forward.

The former being the President during tonight's State of the Union Address, the latter being the Fed Chair this morning in an interview at The Economic Club of Washington.

Look for some volatility (either direction) later this morning when Powell sits down with David Rubenstein.

Asian stocks leaned red again overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closed lower.

Europe's mostly red so far this morning as well, with 12 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

US equity averages are down to start the session: Dow by 122 points (0.36%), SP500 down 0.33%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.49%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.12%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.21%, Russell 2000 down 0.83%.

The VIX sits at 19.79, up 1.85%.

Oil futures are up 1.61%, gold's down 0.02%, silver's down 0.48%, copper futures are down 0.67% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.15%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.31%.

Among our 36 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and short-term bond ETF), 9 -- led by energy stocks, uranium miners, tech stocks, Dutch Bros and communications stocks -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers being led lower by Amazon, MP Materials, Vietnam equities, Brazil equities and Mexico Equities.

"Can you observe without any prejudice, without taking any sides, without projecting your own personal conclusions, your beliefs, your dogmas, your experience and your knowledge? And, therefore, be totally free of all that to observe clearly?” --J. Krishnamurti

If, as an investor, you can, odds are resoundingly in your favor:

"Without clarity there is no skill."  --JK 

Have a great day!

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