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You are right on the money with your analysis Marty!
ReplyDeleteLivermore once said that the market is always right. One's thesis is only true upon validating it in the market. ISM PMI manufacturing number came out to be a little higher than last month, but it is still below 50. In this case, bad news is good news.
China's PMI is way above 50 in which its economy is very strong upon reopening it.
The market continues to be very resilient. It keeps bouncing against the resistance. In the near term, the US economy is still very strong. I find the market to be fascinating each day.
Hey thanks Sam! Always appreciate your comments and insights...
DeleteOne thing you may very well be aware of, but so many seem to miss (or aren't aware of), is that PMIs (while important data that we take seriously) are a reflection of how purchasing managers see their world only relative to the previous month... Meaning, one month could reflect utterly disastrous conditions/trends -- and if, during the next month, they see overall (net) even the slightest improvement, the score comes in above 50... And so many people (even pundits who should know better) seem to celebrate it as if the economic sun is now shining bright. When, in reality, things may still be pretty dark, or still very dismal relative to, say, the previous year.